TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 9:16 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will say “Zohran / Mamdani” before October 12, 2026. Currently, Kalshi gives this outcome a 99.0% probability. The market resolves based on whether Donald Trump states “Cuba / Cuban,” or a plural or possessive form of it, before October 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, as determined by the resolution source. Traders should closely watch Trump’s public statements leading up to October 12, 2026, as that is the date by which any qualifying statement must be made for the market to resolve to ‘Yes’.
Kalshi
The event resolves if Donald Trump uses any of the specified terms — including singular, plural, or possessive forms — in public statements, direct quotes from source agencies, or written posts on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social) before October 12, 2026. Each term has identical verification criteria: the exact phrase must appear as stated, with no credit given for official documents like executive orders or bills, nor for grammatical or tense variations. Phrases with slashes (e.g., "Doge/Dogecoin") are satisfied by either option. All markets share these uniform conditions, making the resolution contingent on a single qualifying utterance of any listed term.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence. Often, this market demonstrates an ability to incorporate information and adjust probabilities more rapidly than traditional polling or expert analysis. While analysts may offer opinions based on established political strategies, this market reflects the wisdom of the crowd, factoring in a broader range of potential influences. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the speed at which new information is processed, but generally, this market provides a dynamic and responsive assessment of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in the probability of a specific statement being made. The price of a contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust, providing a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each potential statement. The market’s depth and liquidity, indicated by the trading volume, also influence price discovery.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a review of publicly available transcripts, video recordings, and official statements made by Donald Trump during the specified timeframe. The outcome will be determined by whether or not the specified statement was demonstrably made, as verified against credible public sources. The market will then settle based on the outcome of this verification process.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any major political development, such as a significant policy announcement or a shift in the political landscape, could influence expectations about Trump’s statements. Unexpected international events or controversies involving Trump could also drive trading activity. Furthermore, media coverage and public attention focused on specific topics are likely to impact the probabilities reflected in this market. Finally, Trump’s own public appearances and social media activity will be closely watched and could trigger substantial shifts in the market.
