TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will say the word “Moon” before October 5, 2026. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to that outcome. The market resolves based on whether Donald Trump states “Moon” after September 28, 2026 at 8:15am ET and before October 5, 2026 at 12:00am ET, as determined by the resolution source. Traders should closely watch Trump’s public statements leading up to the resolution date of October 5, 2026, to see if this specific term appears in his communications.
Kalshi
The event resolves to Yes if Donald Trump uses any of the specified terms—Kamala, Cuba, Cuban, Golf, Golfer, Golfing, Barack Hussein Obama, TDS, Trump Derangement Syndrome, Crypto, Bitcoin, Bibi, Netanyahu, Ukraine, Autopen, Auto Pen, Who are you with, Where are you from, Prediction Market, Predictive Market, Marijuana, Weed, Cannabis, Melania, Zohran, Mamdani, UFO, UAP, Sleepy Joe, Stupid Question, Rigged Election, Stolen Election, Socialist, Socialism, Transgender, Peace in the Middle East, Uranium, Soleimani, Ceasefire, Make Iran Great Again, Golden Dome, Moon, Antifa, Third Term, Epstein, Landslide, Canada, Canadian, Dividend, Stimulus, Blockade, Voter ID, or Nobel—in any public statement, direct quote published by source agencies, or written public statement on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social) between September 28, 2026, at 8:15 a.m. ET and October 5, 2026, at 12:00 a.m. ET. The exact term, or its plural/possessive form, must be used; grammatical/tense inflections and official acts like executive orders or signed bills do not count.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in the probability of different statements. The price of each contract reflects the current market consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis, leading to dynamic price fluctuations. The higher the demand for a particular outcome, the higher its price will climb, indicating a greater perceived likelihood. This creates a real-time assessment of potential statements.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a review of publicly available transcripts, video recordings, and official statements made by Donald Trump during the specified timeframe. The market will determine which statement, if any, matches the defined outcomes. It’s important to note that the focus is on direct statements, not interpretations or analyses of his remarks, ensuring a clear and objective resolution process.
