TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 4:53 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A 'mention' will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A 'mention' will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls aim to capture stated preferences, this market aggregates revealed preferences through actual financial commitments. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly when strong opinions or biases are present. For example, if polls show a close race, this market may lean more heavily towards one outcome if traders believe certain factors are being underestimated by pollsters. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming an overall assessment of potential outcomes.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of different outcomes. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and express their views, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment. The market's efficiency relies on active participation and the willingness of traders to take opposing positions, ensuring prices accurately represent available information.
This market will resolve around Oct 31, 2026. The outcome will be determined by a review of publicly available transcripts and recordings of statements made by Donald Trump during the month of October. Verification will be based on credible public reporting and widely available sources. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The resolution will focus on the core message and intent of the statements, rather than minor phrasing variations. The goal is to provide a clear and objective assessment of what was communicated.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major political events, such as debates or significant policy announcements, are likely to cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected news related to legal proceedings involving Donald Trump could also have a substantial impact. Additionally, any public gaffes or particularly impactful statements made before October could pre-shape market sentiment. Finally, broader economic or geopolitical developments that draw attention away from or towards Donald Trump could also move this market as traders adjust their expectations.
