TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 2:40 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether Donald Trump will mention specific topics during his scheduled remarks at a summit. The focus is on identifying particular keywords or phrases spoken by Trump in an official capacity during the live address.
Kalshi
The event evaluates numerous specific phrases that Donald Trump might utter during his official remarks at the A New Golden Age Summit scheduled for October 8, 2026. Each market corresponds to a unique phrase or set of phrases (e.g., “Space Force,” “China,” “Golden Age”). A market resolves to Yes if Trump explicitly says the exact phrase, or any plural/possessive form of it, during the live broadcast of the summit while speaking officially. Resolution relies primarily on live video footage; if video review is inconclusive, official transcripts are used. Markets resolve to No if the phrase isn’t uttered. If the summit is canceled or postponed beyond qualifying parameters, the “Event does not qualify” market resolves to Yes, and all others resolve to No. Postponements announced within one day and rescheduled within 14 days keep markets open.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's important to note that this market represents the collective wisdom of those trading on Kalshi. Comparing these odds to traditional analyst forecasts reveals how public sentiment, as expressed through trading, aligns with or diverges from expert opinions. Often, this market can offer a different perspective than polls or punditry, as traders have 'skin in the game' and are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. While analysts may focus on political strategy, this market reflects expectations about what Trump will actually say, based on real-time trading activity.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of specific statements being made. As more people buy a contract, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract represents the cost to acquire a unit of probability for that outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds reflect the latest information and collective intelligence of the traders participating.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a transcript of Donald Trump’s remarks at the Science Summit. The contracts will pay out based on whether the specified statements were demonstrably made during the speech. The exact wording of the statement, as recorded in the official transcript, will be the determining factor for payout, and any ambiguity will be resolved using standard practices for interpreting textual data.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any pre-released excerpts of Trump’s remarks would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Major news events related to science, technology, or policy could also influence expectations about the speech's content. Furthermore, statements made by Trump or his campaign team in the days leading up to the summit could provide clues about his intended message. Finally, any unexpected developments or controversies surrounding the Science Summit itself could alter the market’s assessment of the likely topics and statements.
