TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 21, 3:40 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks specific phrases Donald Trump might use during a scheduled White House roundtable. Participants can bet on whether Trump will mention certain topics or names during his official remarks at the event.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on whether Donald Trump utters any of the specified phrases during the White House roundtable originally scheduled for October 21, 2026. Each market corresponds to a unique phrase or set of phrases (e.g., "Deal / Settle," "China / Chinese," "Biden"), and the market resolves to Yes if Trump says the exact phrase, or a plural/possessive form of it, during the official proceedings. Resolution relies primarily on live video broadcasts or official transcripts. Markets remain open if the event is postponed within 14 days; if canceled or unable to qualify, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, closing all others. Grammatical variations and off-mic comments do not count.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the odds offered in this market reflect a collective prediction from traders on Kalshi. These probabilities often differ from initial analyst forecasts or polling data, as the market incorporates new information and diverse perspectives. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of Trump’s past statements, the perceived political climate, or simply the wisdom of the crowd effect. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly in response to breaking news or significant developments, potentially outperforming static pre-event predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes at any time. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe an outcome is likely, they’ll bid up the price of the corresponding contract, and vice versa.
This market is scheduled to resolve around Nov 4, 2026. The outcome will be determined by examining a transcript or reliable recordings of the roundtable discussion, verified against credible public reporting. The market will reflect whether a given statement or topic was demonstrably mentioned by Donald Trump during the event. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders should monitor news sources for official transcripts or recordings as the resolution date approaches to understand how the outcome will be assessed.
Several factors could significantly influence trading activity in this market. Any pre-roundtable statements made by Donald Trump, his campaign, or close associates could shift expectations. Major news events, political developments, or even social media activity related to the roundtable’s expected topics could also drive price movements. Unexpected attendees or changes to the roundtable’s agenda would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds as traders reassess the probabilities of different outcomes.
