TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 4:55 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will mention Elon Musk during his remarks at Anduril Industries originally scheduled for October 6, 2026. Currently, the probability of Trump mentioning Elon Musk is 99.0% on Kalshi. The resolution source for this market is whether Donald Trump says “Elon / Musk” as part of his remarks at Anduril Industries originally scheduled for October 6, 2026. Keep an eye on the remarks themselves, as the market will resolve based on the content of the speech delivered around the resolution date of October 20, 2026, which is when the betting period will close.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Donald Trump includes certain exact phrases during his official remarks at Anduril Industries on October 6, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific phrase or set of phrases (e.g., names, topics, or policy terms), which must be spoken verbatim or in a plural/possessive form by Trump in an official capacity during the live broadcast. Payment verification relies primarily on live video footage; if inconclusive, official transcripts serve as the tiebreaker. Phrases spoken in private, off-mic, or in unrelated contexts do not count. If the event is canceled, the "Event does not qualify" market wins, closing all others. Postponements within 14 days keep markets active. The resolution hinges solely on the presence of designated terms in the officially recorded speech.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts regarding the content of Donald Trump’s remarks. While analysts often provide qualitative assessments, this market quantifies the probability of specific statements being made. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies and information access. Analysts may focus on broader political strategies, whereas this market reflects the collective judgment of traders focused specifically on the likely content of the Anduril Industries remarks. It’s valuable to consider both viewpoints when forming an informed opinion.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The current pricing indicates the perceived likelihood of various topics being addressed, offering a unique perspective beyond simple polling data. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market remains responsive to evolving sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve around Oct 20, 2026. The outcome will be determined by a review of credible public reporting of Donald Trump’s remarks at Anduril Industries. Specifically, the outcome will be based on a verified transcript or reliable recordings of the speech, confirming whether or not the statements listed in the market were actually made. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The resolution process aims to provide a clear and objective assessment based on publicly available information.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Any pre-released excerpts of Trump’s planned remarks would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Major news events related to Anduril Industries, defense policy, or Trump’s current political standing could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements regarding the event itself, such as changes to the speaking agenda or the addition of other prominent figures, could also move the market. Finally, broader political developments or controversies involving Trump could indirectly affect predictions about his speech content.
