TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 10:01 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will say “Kamala” during his rally in Youngstown, Ohio. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to this outcome. The market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump utters the phrase “Kamala” as part of his Midterm Rally in Youngstown, Ohio, with resolution information sourced directly from a recording of the event. Keep an eye on the rally itself, scheduled for October 12, 2026, as any mention of Kamala Harris during the speech will determine the outcome of this market.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Donald Trump includes specific exact phrases during his Midterm Rally in Youngstown, Ohio. Resolution relies on live video broadcasts or official transcripts to verify if Trump utters any of the listed phrases in an official capacity. Certain markets require multiple mentions (e.g., three or five times) of a phrase for resolution. If the rally is canceled, postponed beyond qualifying limits, or otherwise unable to proceed, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, nullifying all others. Postponements announced within one day and rescheduled within 14 days keep markets open.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Currently, this market reflects the aggregated predictions of traders on Kalshi, offering a different perspective than traditional polls or expert analyses. Often, prediction markets can incorporate information more quickly and efficiently than polls, potentially leading to more accurate forecasts. However, analyst forecasts provide valuable qualitative context and reasoning that may not be fully captured in market prices. It’s valuable to consider both sources when evaluating potential outcomes for the rally.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes of what Trump will say at the rally. The price of each contract reflects the market's current assessment of its probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time indication of market sentiment. The volume of trading also influences price discovery, with higher volume generally leading to more accurate and efficient pricing. Traders aim to profit by correctly predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on a review of transcripts and recordings of the rally to determine whether each statement or topic was mentioned by Donald Trump. The specific details of what constitutes a 'mention' are defined within the market rules on Kalshi. The outcome will be determined objectively based on the available evidence, ensuring a fair and transparent resolution process. Traders should review the market rules for complete details regarding resolution.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any breaking news related to Donald Trump, his campaign, or the topics expected to be discussed at the rally could influence trading activity. Official statements from the Trump campaign, pre-rally interviews, or even social media posts could provide clues about his likely remarks. Unexpected political developments or major news events could also shift market sentiment. Furthermore, increased media coverage or analyst commentary focusing on the rally could attract more traders and increase volume, leading to price fluctuations in this market.
