TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 5:24 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will say “Peace in the Middle East” during his midterm rally in Waco, Texas originally scheduled for October 27, 2026. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to this outcome. The market will resolve based on whether this phrase is spoken during the rally, as determined by the resolution source. Traders should closely watch for any changes to the rally schedule or content leading up to October 27, 2026, as the market resolves based on what is actually said at that event.
Kalshi
The event consists of multiple markets, each centered on whether Donald Trump utters a specific phrase or set of phrases during his midterm rally in Waco, Texas, scheduled for October 27, 2026. Resolution relies primarily on video footage from the live broadcast or stream of the rally. If video consensus cannot be reached, official transcripts are used. Each market has precise payout criteria requiring the exact phrase, or its plural/possessive form, to be spoken by Trump in an official capacity. Grammatical variations, inaudible private conversations, and content from unrelated times or places do not count. If the rally is definitively canceled, postponed beyond 14 days, or otherwise unable to resolve normally, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, and all others to No. Postponements announced within one day for rescheduling within 14 days keep markets open.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential statements by Donald Trump, and the price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth—the number of contracts available at different price points—indicates the level of agreement among traders regarding each outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive reflection of public sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on a transcript or reliable video recording of Donald Trump’s remarks during the Waco rally. The specific statements that are included in the market will be compared against the actual transcript to determine which outcomes occurred. The focus is on direct quotations or very close paraphrases of statements made during the event, as defined by the market’s parameters.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any pre-rally statements made by Donald Trump or his campaign team could shift expectations and influence trading activity. Major news events occurring before the rally, particularly those related to the topics expected to be addressed in Waco, could also cause price fluctuations. The release of polling data related to public sentiment toward Trump or the issues he's likely to discuss could also move the market. Finally, any perceived changes in the rally’s agenda or focus could lead to adjustments in the odds.
