TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 1:14 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market asks whether Donald Trump will mention Oil, Gas, or Gasoline during his Midterm Rally in San Antonio, Texas originally scheduled for October 7, 2026. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to that outcome. The market will resolve based on whether Trump utters those terms during the rally, as determined by the resolution source. Traders should closely watch for any changes in Trump’s planned remarks leading up to October 21, 2026, which is the estimated resolution date for this market.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Donald Trump utters any of 39 specified phrases during his midterm rally in San Antonio, Texas, scheduled for October 7, 2026. Each phrase corresponds to a distinct market that resolves to 'Yes' if Trump says the exact phrase—or its plural/possessive form—during the live broadcast of the rally. Official transcripts serve as a fallback if video consensus cannot be reached. Markets resolve to 'No' if the rally is canceled, postponed beyond 14 days, or if none of the specified phrases are uttered. The 'Event does not qualify' market resolves to 'Yes' under these conditions, overriding all others. All determinations are made by Kalshi employees based on available audio/video evidence.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for what will be said at the Texas rally. While analysts often provide qualitative assessments and probabilities based on past behavior, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a diverse range of informed opinions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of political signals or varying levels of access to information. This market provides a quantifiable measure of belief, which can be contrasted with the more subjective viewpoints found in conventional political analysis, offering a different lens through which to view the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes regarding the rally. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more trades occur, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and offers, creating a dynamic pricing mechanism that responds to real-time market activity. The current prices represent the collective belief of all participants in the market.
This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on a review of transcripts and video recordings of the rally, focusing on whether specific statements or topics were mentioned as defined by the market contracts. The determination will rely on publicly available sources to ensure an objective and transparent process. The outcome will reflect the actual content of the rally, as documented in reliable media coverage and official records.
Several signals or events could significantly shift the odds in this market. Any breaking news related to Donald Trump's planned remarks, such as leaked excerpts of his speech or announcements about specific policy focuses, would likely cause movement. Major political developments, shifts in public opinion polls, or unexpected endorsements could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, any controversies or significant events occurring in the days leading up to the rally could alter the perceived likelihood of certain topics being addressed, leading to changes in the market’s pricing.
