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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina?
kalshi

What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina?

Volume:
$1,130,339

Fraud (3+ times)

 - Kalshi

Fraud (3+ times) - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 5:24 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Fraud (3+ times)

View
100%
46%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$73,910
N/A
N/A
$46,311
1w 2d 20h
Yes
kalshi

America First

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30,809
N/A
N/A
$23,781
1w 2d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Save America Act

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$29,283
N/A
N/A
$28,026
1w 2d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Hurricane

View
100%
66%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$25,044
N/A
N/A
$21,663
1w 2d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Electricity

View
100%
70%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$20,414
N/A
N/A
$13,300
1w 2d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Gulf of America

View
100%
55%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15,098
N/A
N/A
$8,728
1w 2d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Hormuz

View
100%
40%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$14,678
N/A
N/A
$7,500
1w 2d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Maduro

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$14,032
N/A
N/A
$9,939
1w 2d 20h
Yes
kalshi

China / Chinese

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13,590
N/A
N/A
$8,181
1w 2d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Tariff (3+ times)

View
100%
11%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13,527
N/A
N/A
$9,196
1w 2d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Alaska

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,749
N/A
N/A
$10,601
1w 2d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Small Business

View
100%
26%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,791
N/A
N/A
$7,182
1w 2d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Canada / Canadian

View
100%
36%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,055
N/A
N/A
$5,342
1w 2d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Bessent

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,957
N/A
N/A
$4,599
1w 2d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Ilhan / Omar

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,370
N/A
N/A
$5,828
1w 2d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Steel

View
100%
34%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,284
N/A
N/A
$3,759
1w 2d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Windmill

View
100%
78%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,936
N/A
N/A
$4,348
1w 2d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Crypto / Bitcoin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$152,733
N/A
N/A
$151,227
1w 2d 20h
No
kalshi

AI / Artificial Intelligence

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$97,037
N/A
N/A
$93,221
1w 2d 20h
No
kalshi

Deport / Deported / Deportation

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$92,883
N/A
N/A
$76,475
1w 2d 20h
No
kalshi

ICE

View
0%
68%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$43,756
N/A
N/A
$31,588
1w 2d 20h
No
kalshi

Blockade

View
0%
39%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$36,276
N/A
N/A
$32,335
1w 2d 20h
No
kalshi

Iran (5+ times)

View
0%
78%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$33,366
N/A
N/A
$17,045
1w 2d 20h
No
kalshi

Data Center

View
0%
40%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$33,216
N/A
N/A
$26,745
1w 2d 20h
No
kalshi

Ceasefire

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31,275
N/A
N/A
$29,184
1w 2d 20h
No
Total markets: 25 of 44

Intro

This market tracks whether Donald Trump will mention the word “Tariff” at least three times during his midterm rally in Rock Hill, South Carolina originally scheduled for October 29, 2026. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to this outcome resolving to “Yes,” based on the resolution source which is whether Trump says “Tariff” (3+ times) as part of the rally. Traders should closely watch for any official announcements regarding the rally’s content or schedule, as the resolution will be determined by what is said during the event window culminating in the resolution date of November 12, 2026.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether Donald Trump mentions any of 37 specified phrases or terms during his midterm rally in Rock Hill, South Carolina, scheduled for October 29, 2026. Each phrase or term—such as “Save America Act,” “China,” “America First,” or “Social Security”—has its own market that resolves to Yes if Trump says it in an official capacity during the rally. Markets requiring a minimum number of repetitions (e.g., “Nuclear (3+ times)”) resolve to Yes only if the term is used the specified number of times. Resolution relies primarily on live video broadcasts or streams of the rally; if video consensus cannot be reached, official transcripts are used. If the rally is definitively canceled, postponed beyond 14 calendar days, or otherwise fails to qualify, the “Event does not qualify” market resolves to Yes, and all others resolve to No. Postponements announced within one calendar day to occur within 14 days keep markets open.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Trump South Carolina rally tracks the probabilities of various statements being made by Donald Trump during the event. You can view the current odds for each outcome, along with the total volume traded of $1,130,339 and the 24-hour volume of $1,071,856. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market has moved over time. This provides a real-time view of what traders believe is most likely to occur at the rally.

Currently, the odds on Kalshi reflect a collective assessment of the likelihood of different statements from the rally, which may differ from individual analyst predictions. It's common to see discrepancies, as analysts often rely on polling data and qualitative assessments, while this market aggregates the views of a diverse group of traders. If analysts are consistently predicting a higher or lower probability of certain statements than what is reflected in this market, it could indicate differing interpretations of the political landscape or Trump's typical messaging.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each outcome, and the prices adjust based on supply and demand. As more people bet on a particular statement being made, its price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price effectively represents the collective belief of all participants regarding the likelihood of each outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a constantly updated forecast of what will be said at the Trump South Carolina rally.

This market will resolve around Nov 12, 2026, once the full transcript or reliable video recording of the rally is publicly available. The outcome will be determined by verifying whether each statement in this market was actually uttered by Donald Trump during the South Carolina rally, confirmed against credible public reporting. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The resolution process focuses solely on the spoken words at the event, and does not consider the context or intent behind those statements.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Any pre-rally statements made by Donald Trump or his campaign team regarding the topics covered in this market could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected news events or political developments leading up to the rally could also alter expectations. Furthermore, the size and composition of the rally audience, as well as any notable reactions during the event, might impact the perceived likelihood of certain statements being made. Finally, any clarifications or retractions issued after the rally could also move the market.