TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 11:31 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will say “Barack Hussein Obama” during his Midterm Rally in Clemson, South Carolina originally scheduled for October 21, 2026. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to this outcome, resolving based on whether Trump utters the phrase during the rally as determined by the resolution source. The market will close and settle based on the contents of the rally, and traders should watch for the rally itself, scheduled for October 21, 2026, to see if Trump makes the specific mention.
Kalshi
The event consists of multiple markets resolved based on whether Donald Trump utters specific exact phrases during his scheduled midterm rally in Clemson, South Carolina on October 21, 2026. Each market has a primary rule triggered if Trump says the designated phrase, with some requiring the phrase to be mentioned a minimum number of times (e.g., three or more). Resolution relies on live video broadcast or stream of the rally; if video consensus cannot be reached, official transcripts are used. Phrases must be spoken by Trump in an official capacity during the rally itself—grammatical variations, private conversations, archival footage, or unrelated content do not count. If the rally is definitively canceled or fails to meet payout criteria, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, closing all others as No. Postponements announced within one calendar day for rescheduling within 14 days keep markets open.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding the Trump South Carolina rally. While analysts often provide qualitative assessments, this market quantifies expectations about specific statements. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and information access. For example, analysts might focus on broader themes, while this market focuses on precise wording. It’s important to note that prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives, potentially leading to forecasts that diverge from those of individual experts. This market provides a unique, crowd-sourced view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each outcome related to the Trump South Carolina rally. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective belief about that outcome’s likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and shifting sentiment. The goal is to create a market where prices accurately represent the true probabilities, allowing participants to profit from correctly predicting the event’s outcome. The current volume indicates active trading and a dynamic pricing environment.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on a transcript or reliable recording of the Trump South Carolina rally, and whether the specified statements were demonstrably made during the event. The outcome will be determined by whether the statements occurred as defined in the market contracts. The resolution process focuses on objective verification of the rally’s content, ensuring a clear and transparent outcome for all participants in this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Any breaking news related to the Trump campaign, changes to the rally’s schedule, or pre-rally statements from Trump himself could all influence trading activity. Unexpected policy announcements or significant political developments could also shift expectations. Furthermore, the release of polling data or analysis from political commentators could impact the perceived likelihood of certain statements being made during the Trump South Carolina rally. Increased media coverage or social media trends related to the event could also drive volume and price changes in this market.
