TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 11:14 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will mention “Insurance” during his rally in Salina, Kansas, originally scheduled for October 31, 2026 and rescheduled for November 1, 2026. Currently, the probability of Trump mentioning “Insurance” is 100.0%, while the probability of him not mentioning it is also 100.0% on Kalshi. Resolution will be determined by whether Trump utters the word “Insurance” as part of the rally, as defined by the resolution source. Keep an eye on the rally itself on November 1, 2026, as that is when we’ll know if Trump makes the specified mention.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on whether Donald Trump utters specified exact phrases or words during his midterm rally in Salina, Kansas, rescheduled from October 31, 2026, to November 1, 2026. Each market corresponds to a unique phrase or term (e.g., 'Transgender,' 'Save America Act,' 'Tariff'). The phrase must be spoken in an official capacity during the live rally; private or off-mic comments do not count. Resolution relies primarily on live video broadcasts or official transcripts if video consensus cannot be reached. If the rally is definitively canceled or fails to meet payout criteria, the 'Event does not qualify' market resolves to Yes, and all others resolve to No. Postponements announced within one calendar day and rescheduled within 14 days keep markets open. Payouts require the exact phrase, plural/possessive forms, or specified alternatives (e.g., 'AI' or 'Artificial Intelligence') to be spoken, excluding grammatical variations or unaired content.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the likelihood of each outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The current volume of $724,668 suggests active participation and a degree of confidence in the market’s price discovery process.
This market resolves around Nov 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a review of transcripts and recordings of Donald Trump’s remarks during the rally in Salina, Kansas. Specifically, the market will determine whether the statements outlined in the possible outcomes were actually made. The outcome will be determined by assessing the totality of the remarks, ensuring an accurate and objective assessment of what was said during the event.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution date. Any breaking news related to Donald Trump’s planned remarks, such as leaked speech drafts or statements from his campaign team, could influence trader behavior. Shifts in public opinion, reflected in polling data, or unexpected political developments could also impact the market. Furthermore, any controversies or gaffes leading up to the rally could alter expectations about the content of his speech and, consequently, the prices in this market. Major economic announcements or international events could also play a role.
