TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 9:24 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will mention Social Security at least five times during his rally in Lubbock, Texas originally scheduled for October 27, 2026. Currently, the probability of this occurring on Kalshi is 6.0%, with a 1.0% probability that he will not. The market will resolve based on a transcript of the rally, as defined by whether Donald Trump says Social Security (5+ times) as part of midterm rally in Lubbock, Texas originally scheduled for October 27, 2026. Traders should closely watch the rally itself on October 27, 2026, to assess the likelihood of Trump focusing on this particular policy area.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on whether Donald Trump mentions any of 34 specified phrases during his midterm rally in Lubbock, Texas on October 27, 2026. Each phrase has precise payout criteria requiring the exact word or phrase, or its plural/possessive form, to be spoken by Trump in an official capacity during the live broadcast. Grammatical variations, unaired content, and off-mic remarks do not count. If the rally is canceled, postponed beyond 14 days, or otherwise fails to meet resolution conditions, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, nullifying all others. Resolution relies primarily on live video footage, with official transcripts used as a secondary source if video consensus cannot be reached. All markets remain open if a postponement is announced within 14 days of the original date.
Frequently asked questions
This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on a transcript or reliable recording of Donald Trump’s full speech at the Lubbock, Texas rally. The market will determine which statements were actually uttered by Trump during the event. The outcome will be determined by a review of the official record of the rally, ensuring accuracy and transparency in the resolution process.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 10, 2026. Any breaking news related to Donald Trump, his campaign, or the political climate could shift trader sentiment. Additionally, pre-rally statements or hints about the speech's content could influence the odds. Major policy announcements or unexpected events occurring in the days leading up to the rally could also cause fluctuations. Finally, any changes in public opinion or polling data regarding key issues Trump is likely to address could move this market as traders adjust their predictions.
