TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 7:09 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will mention Fentanyl during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa originally scheduled for November 1, 2026. Currently, the probability of him saying Fentanyl is 100.0%, while the probability of him not saying Fentanyl is also 100.0% on Kalshi. The resolution source for this market is whether Donald Trump says Fentanyl as part of the midterm rally in Dubuque, Iowa originally scheduled for November 1, 2026. Keep a close watch on the rally itself, scheduled for November 1, 2026, as any utterance of the phrase during that event will determine the outcome.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Donald Trump utters any of 38 specified phrases during his midterm rally in Dubuque, Iowa, scheduled for November 1, 2026. Each phrase represents a distinct topic or theme, and the market resolves to Yes if he says any one of them in an official capacity during the rally. Resolution relies primarily on live video broadcasts or official transcripts, with exact matches required—excluding grammatical variations or informal contexts. If the rally is canceled, postponed beyond 14 days, or otherwise fails to meet qualification criteria, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, nullifying all others. Postponements announced within one day and rescheduled within 14 days keep markets open.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than many analyst forecasts regarding the content of the upcoming Trump rally. While traditional political analysts often rely on past statements and campaign messaging, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are actively assessing the likelihood of specific statements. This dynamic pricing can sometimes reveal insights that diverge from conventional wisdom, potentially identifying statements analysts deem unlikely but traders believe have a higher probability of being uttered. It's a real-time assessment of what the crowd believes will happen.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity provide insights into the level of confidence traders have in each potential statement being made during the rally.
This market resolves around Nov 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a transcript or reliable recording of the rally speech, analyzed to determine whether each statement was explicitly made by Donald Trump. The determination will focus on direct quotations and will not include paraphrasing or interpretations of his remarks. The outcome will be based on the content of the speech as publicly documented.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any breaking news related to Donald Trump's campaign strategy or planned messaging would likely impact trading activity. Unexpected policy announcements, responses to current events, or even changes in the rally's schedule could all shift the probabilities. Additionally, any public statements made by Trump leading up to the rally, even outside of formal speeches, could influence traders' expectations and cause the market to react. Increased media coverage or attention to specific talking points could also drive volume and price fluctuations.
