TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 10:34 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will say “Nuclear” at least three times during his rally in Chillicothe, Ohio originally scheduled for October 28, 2026. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to that outcome. The resolution source for this market is whether Donald Trump says “Nuclear” (3+ times) as part of the midterm rally in Chillicothe, Ohio originally scheduled for October 28, 2026. Keep an eye on the rally itself, as the market will resolve based on what is said during the event window, with a resolution date estimate of November 11, 2026.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on whether Donald Trump mentions specific phrases during his midterm rally in Chillicothe, Ohio. Each market corresponds to a unique phrase or set of phrases, including singular terms, combinations with slashes (e.g., "China / Chinese"), and phrases requiring multiple mentions (e.g., "Nuclear (3+ times)"). Resolution relies on live video broadcasts or official transcripts to verify if Trump uttered the exact phrase in an official capacity during the rally. Grammatical variations, inaudible private conversations, and content from unrelated recordings do not count. If the rally is canceled, postponed beyond 14 days, or otherwise unable to proceed, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, nullifying all others. Postponements announced within one day and rescheduled within 14 days keep markets open.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds represent a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for what Donald Trump will say at his Ohio rally. While analysts often rely on past statements and campaign messaging, this market reflects the collective judgment of traders who are actively weighing a broader range of factors, including real-time political developments and potential strategic shifts. This dynamic approach can sometimes lead to divergences, where the market odds signal a different likelihood than what is being projected by conventional political analysis. It’s a unique way to gauge expectations surrounding the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential statements, and the prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts for a particular statement, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current prices reflect the collective assessment of all traders participating in the market, providing a dynamic and real-time estimate of the likelihood of each outcome. The market’s depth and volume – $1,377,832 – contribute to price discovery.
This market is scheduled to resolve around Nov 11, 2026. The outcome will be determined by a review of transcripts and video recordings of Donald Trump’s speech in Chillicothe, Ohio, verified against credible public sources. The market will assess whether each statement listed in the market was demonstrably made during the rally. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The resolution process focuses on factual confirmation of the statements, ensuring an objective determination based on the publicly available record of the event.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Any breaking news related to Donald Trump’s campaign strategy, unexpected policy announcements, or even significant reactions to recent political events could shift trader sentiment. Additionally, statements made by Trump or his campaign team in the days leading up to the rally, particularly those hinting at the themes he will address, could influence the odds. Finally, shifts in broader political polling data or major economic indicators could also play a role in how this market evolves.
