TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 6:24 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will mention Kamala Harris during his Midterm Rally in Bullhead City, Arizona originally scheduled for October 14, 2026. Currently, the probability of Trump mentioning Kamala Harris is 100.0%, while the probability of him not mentioning her is also 100.0% on Kalshi. The market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump says “Kamala” as part of the rally, according to the resolution source. Keep an eye on the rally itself, scheduled for October 14, 2026, as that is when we will know if the key phrase is uttered and the market will be settled.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Donald Trump mentions specific predefined phrases during his midterm rally in Bullhead City, Arizona, scheduled for October 14, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct phrase or set of phrases (e.g., policy topics, names, or slogans). A market resolves to 'Yes' if Trump utters the exact phrase—or any plural/possessive form of it—during the live broadcast of the rally, while speaking in an official capacity. Resolution relies primarily on video footage from the live stream; if video review yields no consensus, official transcripts are used. Certain conditions invalidate payouts, such as private off-mic comments, archival footage, or unauthenticated recordings. If the rally is definitively canceled, all markets except 'Event does not qualify' resolve to 'No.' Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. The 'Event does not qualify' market resolves 'Yes' if no qualifying phrases are spoken or if the event fails to proceed under normal resolution conditions.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's important to note that this market represents the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi. Comparing these odds to traditional analyst forecasts reveals how public perception, as expressed through trading, aligns with or diverges from expert opinions. Often, prediction markets can offer a different perspective than polls or punditry, potentially incorporating a wider range of information and reacting more quickly to new developments. The dynamic nature of this market means the odds will shift as new information becomes available, potentially offering insights beyond static analyst predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential statements from Donald Trump, and the prices of these contracts reflect the market's collective belief about the probability of each statement being made. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, where a price of 50 represents a 50% probability. As more people trade, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing opinions. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome determined by a review of credible public reporting of the rally. Specifically, the outcome will be based on transcripts and verified recordings of Donald Trump’s remarks during the event. The determination will focus on whether each statement listed in this market was demonstrably made, and will be confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price of each outcome will reflect the market’s prediction accuracy.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any breaking news related to Donald Trump's planned remarks, changes to his schedule, or significant political developments in Arizona could all cause shifts in the odds. Public statements made by Trump or his campaign team leading up to the rally, as well as media coverage and analysis, could also impact this market. Unexpected events during the rally itself, such as protests or disruptions, could also move prices as traders react to unfolding circumstances.
