TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 11:09 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will say the word “Fraud” at least three times during his rally in Wasilla, Alaska originally scheduled for October 13, 2026. Currently, Kalshi gives a 100.0% probability to this outcome. The market will resolve based on whether Trump utters the phrase as part of his official speech, according to the resolution source. Keep an eye on the rally itself, as the market is scheduled to resolve on October 27, 2026, allowing time for the event to conclude and the resolution criteria to be assessed.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Donald Trump mentions any of 36 specified phrases or terms during his midterm rally in Wasilla, Alaska, scheduled for October 13, 2026. Each phrase or term constitutes a separate market that resolves to Yes if Trump utters the exact phrase (including plural or possessive forms), and No otherwise. Resolution relies primarily on live broadcast or stream video; if video consensus cannot be reached, official transcripts are used. Markets also account for event cancellations or postponements: if the event is definitively canceled or fails to qualify, the “Event does not qualify” market resolves to Yes, and all others resolve to No. If postponed within 14 calendar days, markets remain open. The phrases range from political topics like “Supreme Court” and “Healthcare,” to geopolitical terms such as “Russia/Ukraine” and “Israel/Israeli,” and include issues like “Fentanyl,” “Deport/Deported/Deportation,” and cultural references like “Drill Baby Drill.” Any instance of the exact phrase during the official rally triggers a Yes resolution for that market.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts requires looking at pre-event polling and expert commentary regarding the likely themes and specific phrases Donald Trump will employ during his Alaska rally. While analysts often provide qualitative assessments of potential talking points, this market quantifies expectations by assigning probabilities to concrete statements. Discrepancies between analyst predictions and the market’s pricing can reveal whether traders believe Trump will deviate from expected messaging or focus on unexpected issues, offering a unique perspective beyond traditional political analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in whether specific statements will be made. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd, with higher prices indicating a greater probability of the statement being uttered by Donald Trump. As new information emerges – such as pre-rally interviews or shifts in the political landscape – traders adjust their positions, causing the odds to fluctuate and converge towards a consensus view.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a comprehensive review of transcripts and recordings from the rally to determine whether each statement in the market was actually made by Donald Trump. Traders will have until the resolution date to adjust their positions based on any late-breaking information or developments related to the event.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any pre-rally statements made by Donald Trump himself, or by key figures within his campaign, could shift expectations about his likely messaging. Major news events occurring in the days leading up to the rally, particularly those related to Alaska or national political issues, could also influence the market. Finally, unexpected attendance figures or any disruptions during the rally itself could impact trader sentiment and lead to price adjustments in this market.
