TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 10:10 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Donald Trump is scheduled to give remarks during his Midterm Rally in Youngstown, Ohio on October 12, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET. (https://events.gop.com/events/midterm-rally-in-youngstown-ohio-president-donald-j-trump) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Midterm Rally in Ohio on October 12, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. The resolution source will be audio/video of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Polymarket
Donald Trump is scheduled to give remarks during his Midterm Rally in Youngstown, Ohio on October 12, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET. (https://events.gop.com/events/midterm-rally-in-youngstown-ohio-president-donald-j-trump) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Midterm Rally in Ohio on October 12, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. The resolution source will be audio/video of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling data on the potential topics discussed at the Ohio rally. While polls attempt to gauge public opinion, this market reflects what traders believe Donald Trump will actually say. Historically, prediction markets have sometimes been more accurate than polls in forecasting specific event outcomes, as they aggregate the wisdom of the crowd and incentivize accurate predictions. It’s important to note that polls and this market address different questions – what people *want* to happen versus what they *expect* to happen.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, the higher its price rises, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds reflect the collective intelligence of participants, constantly updating as new information becomes available and opinions shift.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on a review of transcripts and video recordings of the rally to determine whether each statement was made by Donald Trump. The market will then settle to 100% for the outcome(s) that occurred and 0% for those that did not. The specific statements considered for resolution are those listed as possible outcomes within this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any official statements or hints from Donald Trump or his campaign regarding the rally's focus would be influential. Major news events occurring before the rally, particularly those related to the midterm elections or current political controversies, could shift expectations. Unexpected endorsements or criticisms could also impact the market. Finally, any changes in public sentiment, as reflected in polling data, might cause traders to adjust their positions in this market.
