TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 3:30 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether Donald Trump will mention specific topics during a scheduled Oval Office address. The outcome depends on the exact wording used during the live broadcast, with verification through official video or transcripts.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on whether Donald Trump utters any of the specified phrases during his scheduled Oval Office announcement on October 20, 2026. Each market corresponds to a particular phrase or set of phrases (e.g., "China," "Invest," "Nuclear"). The announcement must be delivered in an official capacity, and the exact word or its plural/possessive form must appear. Grammatical variations or informal mentions do not count. Verification uses the live broadcast or official transcripts. If the event is canceled, the "Event does not qualify" market wins; if postponed within 14 days, markets remain open. All markets except "Event does not qualify" resolve to No if the address occurs but none of the specified phrases are used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than many analyst forecasts regarding the content of the announcement. While analysts often provide qualitative assessments, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders, translating their beliefs into quantitative probabilities. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates a different outcome than conventional wisdom suggests. It’s important to note that analysts and market participants may weigh different information and have varying biases, leading to these differences in outlook.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential statements. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that statement being made. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate diverse perspectives and react to real-time developments related to the announcement.
This market is scheduled to resolve around Nov 3, 2026. The outcome will be determined by a review of transcripts and credible public reporting of the announcement. Specifically, the market will assess whether each statement listed in the market options was demonstrably made during the event. The resolution will be based on verified information from reliable news sources and official records, confirming the content of the announcement. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This ensures a fair and objective assessment of the event's outcome.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any breaking news regarding the content or focus of the announcement, such as leaked excerpts or statements from advisors, would likely cause price movements. Shifts in broader political sentiment, reflected in polling data or analyst commentary, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected events leading up to the announcement, like major policy changes or controversies, might prompt traders to reassess the probabilities of different statements being made. Finally, the overall tone and messaging of other political figures could indirectly affect this market.
