TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 7, 2:20 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will mention Oil, Gas, or Gasoline during his Oval Office announcement originally scheduled for October 7, 2026. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to that outcome. The market resolves based on whether those terms are spoken by Donald Trump as part of the announcement, according to the resolution source. Keep an eye on the lead-up to October 21, 2026, as this date represents the estimated resolution date for the market and will indicate when the announcement—and therefore the market—is finalized.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Donald Trump includes certain exact phrases during his scheduled Oval Office announcement on October 7, 2026. Resolution relies primarily on live broadcast video or official transcripts, with specific criteria for qualifying mentions such as exact wording, official capacity, and exclusion of certain contexts like private conversations or archival footage. If the announcement is canceled, postponed beyond 14 days, or otherwise fails to meet resolution conditions, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, nullifying all others. Postponements announced within one day and rescheduled within 14 days keep markets open.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts regarding the content of the upcoming announcement. While analysts often provide qualitative assessments of potential themes, this market aggregates the collective judgment of numerous traders, translating those expectations into quantifiable probabilities. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the crowd anticipates a different approach than experts predict, or where there is significant uncertainty. It’s important to note that this market reflects what traders *believe* will happen, not necessarily what they *expect* should happen.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes, and the price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, with increased buying pressure raising the price and increased selling pressure lowering it. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations surrounding the Trump announcement.
This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a review of transcripts and recordings of the announcement to determine whether each statement was made. The specifics of what constitutes a qualifying statement are outlined in the market rules on Kalshi. Traders should review these rules carefully to understand the conditions for settlement. The final outcome will be determined based on the verifiable content of the announcement itself.
