TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 4:42 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between October 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for 'hello'), will not count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between October 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for 'hello'), will not count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polls and expert analysis. While polls attempt to gauge stated preferences, this market represents what people are willing to *put their money on* actually happening. This difference can be significant, particularly when dealing with events influenced by unpredictable factors or where respondents may not be fully forthcoming with their true beliefs. It's important to remember that this market is a forward-looking indicator, attempting to predict future events, while polls capture a snapshot of current sentiment.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the collective wisdom of traders and their assessment of available information, making it a dynamic and responsive indicator of expectations.
This market will resolve around Oct 11, 2026, based on whether the described post appears on Donald Trump’s official social media accounts during the specified timeframe of October 5th to October 11th. The outcome will be determined by verified information from credible public reporting. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Any ambiguity will be resolved based on the most widely accepted interpretation of the post’s content and timing, as determined by Polymarket’s review process.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any major news events involving Donald Trump, such as legal developments, public appearances, or significant policy statements, could prompt a post and shift the probabilities. Unexpected reactions to current events, or direct engagement with trending topics, are also likely to move the market. Furthermore, activity on competing social media platforms, or statements from prominent political figures, could influence what Trump chooses to address on his own accounts, impacting this market until it resolves around Oct 11, 2026.
