TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 5:20 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data. While polls attempt to gauge stated preferences, this market reflects what people are *willing to bet* will actually happen. This often reveals a different story, as betting involves real financial stakes. Historically, this market and similar ones have sometimes diverged significantly from polling averages, particularly when considering events with high uncertainty or strong partisan biases. It's important to remember that polls measure opinion, while this market measures belief backed by capital.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and express their views, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. This dynamic pricing means the market is constantly updating to incorporate new information and changing perceptions about what Donald Trump will post this week. The current market reflects the sentiment of traders on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome determined by a review of Donald Trump’s official social media accounts (Truth Social, X) between October 12 and October 18. The resolution will be based on the content of his posts during that timeframe, and verified against credible public reporting. The specific outcome that resolves the market will be the one that best reflects the predominant theme or subject matter of his posts during the specified week. The market will settle based on the most accurate assessment of his activity.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Major news events involving Donald Trump, such as legal developments, campaign rallies, or significant policy announcements, are likely to influence trading activity. Unexpected statements from prominent political figures or shifts in public opinion could also drive price changes. Additionally, any direct hints or previews of his planned social media activity could impact the market. Finally, general political discourse and the overall news cycle surrounding the former president will play a role in shaping trader sentiment and influencing the odds.
