TOTAL VOLUME:

$115.4b

24H VOL:

$106,611,677

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,328,568,758

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,186,434,592

311,814

Markets across

30,433

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,031

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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What will Trump post this week? (August 17 - August 23)
⌛Ending Soon
Politics
polymarket
kalshi

What will Trump post this week?

Total volume:
$308,211
Volume 24h:
$66,810
8%
Liquidity:
$123
92%
Open interest:
$161,700
22%

220-240

 - Kalshi

220-240 - Kalshi

100%

+76.9%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

0%20%40%60%80%

Aug 16

Aug 17

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Vol.

$66.7k

·

Resolves Aug 23, 2026

kalshi

Kalshi

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Description

This event group tracks Donald Trump's Truth Social activity during the week of August 17-23, 2026, covering both volume metrics and specific keyword appearances.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets share the same resolution source (@realDonaldTrump's Truth Social account) and consistent time window (August 17-23, 2026)Primary resolution logic: Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account @realDonaldTrump

Core resolution logic:

  • Volume market resolves to Yes if total posts between Aug 16-22, 2026 meet any threshold range from <80 to >240
  • Keyword markets resolve to Yes only if exact term appears in main post text (including quote/reply posts but excluding reposts)
  • Text in images qualifies only if spelled out clearly as full words (not in GIFs/animations)
  • Plural/possessive forms and capitalization variance count; misspellings/extraneous symbols do not qualify

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Hashtags/Sigils: Terms preceded by #, @, or currency symbols still count toward resolution
  • Compound Words: Terms forming part of compound words (e.g., 'killjoy' for 'kill') count toward resolution
Timing: Resolution occurs after August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, based on complete review of all posts from @realDonaldTrump during the specified periodOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the total number of Truth Social posts made by Donald Trump between August 16, 2026, at 12:00 AM ET and August 22, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The observation period includes all posts, such as Truths, ReTruths, Quote Truths, and Replies, as captured by Roll Call. The count is recorded at 10:00 AM ET on August 23, 2026, and deleted posts are excluded. Each market corresponds to a specific range of posts, with the final outcome determined by which range the actual count falls into. Alternative sources may be used if Roll Call data is unavailable or inaccurate.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Trump weekly posts market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing real-time probabilities and volume across platforms. It visualizes how traders on different exchanges price the likelihood of various post counts or specific content appearing from the former president during the defined week. This offers a consensus view of market sentiment, with total volume at $308,110 and recent 24-hour volume of $64,332, allowing users to see where the most activity and disagreement lie.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and market design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, one platform might attract more politically engaged traders who react sharply to breaking news, while the other could reflect broader speculative interest. Currently, Polymarket favors Will Trump post "Uranium" on Truth Social this week? at 95.0%, whereas Kalshi leans toward Will Donald Trump make between 220 and 240 Truth Social posts the week of Aug 16, 2026? at 99.0%. These gaps often narrow as the event approaches, but they offer insight into diverse trader perspectives.

This market resolves around Aug 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public sources. The final count or content verification will close all positions, reflecting whether the predicted posts or messages matched the actual activity during the specified week. Timing is tied strictly to the calendar window, ensuring an objective close based on observable, reported behavior rather than internal assessments.

News cycles, public appearances, or platform-specific algorithm changes could shift this market as they influence the former president’s posting habits. Major political developments, legal updates, or even technical glitches on Truth Social may cause rapid re-pricing. Traders often watch headlines and engagement metrics closely; a sudden surge in discussion around a topic could prompt a flurry of posts, moving probabilities quickly toward outcomes that reflect heightened activity or specific keyword appearances.