TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 7:09 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether specific topics or phrases are mentioned during a scheduled news broadcast. The resolution depends on the verbal content delivered by hosts or reporters during the live program, with predefined terms determining the outcome.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether certain specified phrases appear in the ABC World News Tonight broadcast scheduled for October 30, 2026. Each market corresponds to a unique term or set of terms (e.g., "Midterm," "Trump," "Iran"). If any host or reporter uses the exact phrase, its plural, or possessive form during the broadcast, the associated market resolves positively. Resolution relies primarily on video footage of the broadcast; if inconclusive, official transcripts are used. Only content within the original broadcast counts, excluding advertisements but including promotional segments. If the broadcast is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days, markets remain open. All determinations are made using the live stream or recorded broadcast as the sole source of truth.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether specific statements will be made during ABC World News Tonight. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The volume traded indicates the level of confidence and interest in each potential outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a review of the transcript of ABC World News Tonight on the date of the broadcast. The market will determine whether the statements outlined in the possible outcomes were actually said by any host or reporter during the program. Resolution will be based on publicly available information and will be determined by Kalshi’s team.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major breaking news stories, particularly those likely to be covered on ABC World News Tonight, could shift the probabilities of certain statements being made. Changes in political narratives, economic indicators, or international events are all potential catalysts. Additionally, statements made by prominent figures or the release of significant reports could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected developments or controversies related to ABC News itself could also move this market, as traders react to perceived biases or shifts in coverage.
