TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 7:09 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The broadcast will cover current events and stories of public interest, with reporters discussing various topics that may include politics, international affairs, technology, culture, and more. The content will reflect the day's most significant news stories as judged by the network's editorial team.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes if any host or reporter utters the specified phrase or its plural/possessive form during the ABC World News Tonight broadcast scheduled for October 27, 2026. Resolution relies primarily on video footage of the broadcast, with transcripts used as a secondary source if video consensus cannot be reached. Only content within the original broadcast counts, excluding advertisements but including promotional segments. If the broadcast is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days, markets remain open. All markets share these uniform resolution procedures and criteria.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on expert opinion and modeling, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of information and potential scenarios. If analysts predict a high probability of a specific topic being covered, we might see corresponding higher prices for that outcome in this market. However, discrepancies can arise if traders believe analysts are overlooking certain factors, or if there's significant uncertainty surrounding the event. This dynamic interplay between expert opinion and collective forecasting is a key feature of prediction markets.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether a specific topic will be mentioned on ABC World News Tonight. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information and adjust expectations in real-time.
This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a review of the ABC World News Tonight broadcast transcript to determine which topics were explicitly mentioned. The market will determine whether each topic was discussed during the program, and the outcome will be based on that verification. Traders should monitor news coverage leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential catalysts that could influence the outcome of this market.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Major breaking news events, particularly those with international implications or domestic political significance, would likely shift probabilities as traders assess their potential coverage on ABC World News Tonight. Unexpected statements from key political figures or developments in ongoing investigations could also drive activity. Additionally, the release of significant economic data or reports on pressing social issues could influence the market. Any indication of the planned broadcast agenda, such as previews or announcements, would also be a strong catalyst for price movement in this market.
