TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 7:09 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether specific topics or names are mentioned during a scheduled news broadcast. The outcome depends on the content of the live broadcast, with certain phrases triggering a positive resolution. The broadcast's full content, excluding advertisements, will determine the result.
Kalshi
The event resolves positively if any host or reporter during the ABC World News Tonight broadcast scheduled for October 26, 2026, utters any of the specified phrases or names, including Trump, Russia/Ukraine, Putin, Starlink, Kenya, NFL/Football, Alaska, Midterm, Anthropic, Houthi, Iran/Iranian, Flood/Flooding, Obama, Justice Department/DOJ, Comey, Bugs Bunny/Looney Tunes, AI/Artificial Intelligence, or Epstein. The primary source for resolution is the video of the broadcast; if consensus cannot be reached, official transcripts will be used. The exact phrase, its plural or possessive form, or grammatical inflections count, but only content within the original broadcast—excluding advertisements but including promotional material—is considered. If the broadcast is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days, the markets remain open.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective belief about what will be said on ABC World News Tonight. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by new information, shifts in sentiment, and trading activity, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the likelihood of various statements being made during the broadcast.
This market resolves around Nov 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a transcript of the ABC World News Tonight broadcast on the specified date. The market will determine whether any of the listed statements were made by a host or reporter during the program. The outcome is determined by a review of the official broadcast transcript, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment of the market’s predictions.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major breaking news stories, particularly those likely to be covered prominently on ABC World News Tonight, would be a key catalyst. Unexpected political developments, economic announcements, or international crises could all influence the perceived probability of certain topics being discussed. Additionally, statements made by key figures related to potential broadcast topics, or even previews of the evening’s agenda, could drive trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any change in the news cycle has the potential to impact the market.
