TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 7:09 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The broadcast will cover current events, featuring discussions on political, economic, and international topics. Key figures, regions, and issues may be highlighted based on recent developments and their potential impact on viewers.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on whether specified phrases or names appear during the ABC World News Tonight broadcast scheduled for October 23, 2026. Each market defines a unique term or phrase that, if uttered by any host or reporter, triggers a 'Yes' outcome. Resolution relies primarily on video footage of the broadcast; if video review fails to achieve consensus among Kalshi employees, official internal and external transcripts are used as tiebreakers. Only content within the original live broadcast or stream counts—advertisements and unaired material are excluded, though promotional segments during the show are included. If the broadcast is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days, all markets remain active. The exact wording, including plural or possessive forms of the target phrase, must appear for a market to resolve positively, with grammatical variations not counting unless explicitly allowed. All determinations are made using the full content of the broadcast as it originally aired.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the cost to purchase a contract that pays out if the corresponding statement is made during the broadcast, and conversely, the amount a seller receives for offering that contract. The market’s efficiency is driven by the incentive for traders to accurately predict the future.
This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a review of the ABC World News Tonight broadcast transcript or official video recording to determine whether the statements outlined in each market outcome were actually made by a host or reporter. The outcome is determined by whether any host or reporter said the statement during the broadcast. The market will settle based on this objective verification of the broadcast content.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major breaking news stories, particularly those likely to be covered extensively by ABC World News Tonight, would be a primary driver. Shifts in political narratives, significant economic announcements, or unexpected international developments could all influence the topics discussed on the broadcast. Additionally, statements made by prominent figures or the release of important reports could increase the probability of certain outcomes. Changes in public attention, as reflected in social media trends or search volume, might also impact trading activity in this market.
