TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 7:09 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether specific topics or names are mentioned during a scheduled news broadcast. The resolution depends on the verbal content of the broadcast, with precise phrasing requirements for each topic or name to count as a mention.
Kalshi
The event evaluates mentions of various specified terms or names during the ABC World News Tonight broadcast scheduled for October 22, 2026. Each market corresponds to a unique term or name (e.g., "Oil / Gas / Gasoline", "Trump (5+ times)", "Midterm", etc.), and the market resolves to Yes if any host or reporter uses the exact phrase, word, or a plural/possessive form of it during the broadcast. Grammatical or tense variations do not count unless explicitly allowed. The live broadcast or stream is the primary source for resolution, with video analysis taking precedence; if consensus cannot be reached, official transcripts are used. Promotional content within the broadcast counts toward resolution, but advertisements do not. If the broadcast is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days, the markets remain open. The entire content of the original broadcast is considered, excluding any material not part of the initial airing.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth shows the available liquidity at different price points, indicating how easily orders can be filled. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive assessment of expectations.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a transcript of the ABC World News Tonight broadcast on the specified date. Any statements made by hosts or reporters during that broadcast will be reviewed to determine if the conditions for a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ outcome have been met. The outcome will be determined by whether the specified statements were made during the program, as documented in the official transcript.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major breaking news events, particularly those likely to be covered on ABC World News Tonight, would likely cause shifts in probabilities. Unexpected announcements from government officials or prominent figures could also move the market. Even the tone and focus of previous broadcasts might influence trader sentiment. Any indication of what topics the program might prioritize could lead to adjustments in the odds, as traders react to perceived changes in likelihood. The closer we get to Nov 5, 2026, the more sensitive this market will become to relevant information.
