TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 21, 7:09 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether specific topics or phrases will be mentioned during a scheduled news broadcast. The resolution depends on the verbal content delivered by hosts or reporters during the live show, with exact phrasing requirements for each potential outcome.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on whether specified terms or phrases are uttered by any host or reporter during the ABC World News Tonight broadcast scheduled for October 21, 2026. Resolution uses video footage primarily, with transcripts as a backup if needed. The exact word, phrase, or their plural/possessive forms must appear, with grammatical variations excluded. Proper nouns and titles containing plural nouns count. Only content within the original broadcast counts, excluding advertisements but including promotional segments. If postponed and rescheduled within 14 days, markets remain active. Each market has unique payout criteria centered on specific keywords or phrases, all evaluated against the same broadcast verification framework.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. While analysts often provide pre-event predictions based on research and expertise, this market reflects the aggregated beliefs of a diverse group of traders. It’s common to see differences, as markets can incorporate information not readily available to analysts, or weigh factors differently. The question is whether the wisdom of the crowd, as expressed through this market, will prove more accurate than traditional forecasting methods when the broadcast airs.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a transcript of the ABC World News Tonight broadcast on the specified date. The contracts will pay out based on whether the predicted statement was actually made by a host or reporter during the program. The market’s outcome is determined by objective verification of the broadcast content, ensuring a clear and transparent resolution process.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major breaking news stories, particularly those related to topics frequently covered on ABC World News Tonight, would likely cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected political developments, economic announcements, or international crises could all influence what reporters choose to focus on. Even statements made by prominent figures or the release of significant reports could alter the perceived probabilities of different outcomes in this market, leading to increased trading volume and price fluctuations.
