TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 7:09 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether specific topics or phrases are mentioned during a scheduled news broadcast. The resolution depends on the verbal content delivered by hosts or reporters within the live broadcast, with strict criteria for phrase matching.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on whether specified phrases are uttered by any host or reporter during the ABC World News Tonight broadcast scheduled for October 20, 2026. Resolution primarily uses video footage of the broadcast, with transcripts serving as a backup if video consensus cannot be reached. The exact phrase, including plural or possessive forms, must appear; grammatical variations do not count. Only content within the original broadcast counts, excluding advertisements but including promotional segments. If the broadcast is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days, markets remain open. The entire broadcast content is considered for all resolution decisions.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market probabilities to those from traditional analysts reveals interesting insights. While analysts often provide subjective opinions based on their expertise, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of perspectives. If analysts predict a high likelihood of a specific topic being covered, we might see corresponding higher probabilities in this market. However, discrepancies can arise due to unforeseen events or differing interpretations of available information, making this market a valuable complement to conventional forecasting.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a transcript of the ABC World News Tonight broadcast, analyzing whether the statements outlined in the market’s possible outcomes were actually made by any host or reporter during the program. The market will determine which outcomes were mentioned, and the resulting probabilities will be finalized based on this verification process.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major breaking news events, particularly those related to politics, international affairs, or significant social issues, are likely to shift probabilities as traders anticipate increased coverage on ABC World News Tonight. Official statements from government officials or prominent figures could also drive movement. Unexpected developments in ongoing stories, or the emergence of entirely new controversies, would also likely cause fluctuations in this market as traders react to the changing information landscape.
