TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 7:09 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether specific topics or names are mentioned during a scheduled news broadcast. The outcome depends on the verbal content of the show, with certain phrases triggering a positive resolution.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on whether any host or reporter utters specified phrases during the ABC World News Tonight broadcast scheduled for October 16, 2026. Resolution primarily uses video footage of the broadcast, with transcripts serving as a backup if video consensus cannot be reached. The exact phrase, including plural or possessive forms, must appear; grammatical variations do not count. Only content within the original broadcast counts, excluding advertisements but including promotional material. If the broadcast is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days, markets remain open. Each market has a unique triggering phrase, and the entire broadcast content is considered for resolution.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. Currently, the market is heavily weighted towards certain types of statements being made during the broadcast, as reflected in the prices you see on the Kalshi dashboard.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a review of the transcripts and recordings of ABC World News Tonight broadcasts to determine whether the statements outlined in the market’s possible outcomes were actually made. The outcome will be determined by whether or not any host or reporter said the statements during the broadcast. This market offers a unique way to forecast media coverage and public discourse.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major breaking news events, particularly those related to politics or international affairs, are likely to shift expectations about the content of ABC World News Tonight. Changes in the political landscape, such as upcoming elections or policy announcements, could also drive movement. Additionally, statements made by key figures or the release of important reports could all impact the probabilities reflected in this market. Unexpected developments or shifts in the news cycle are prime catalysts for changes in trading activity.
