TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 7:09 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether specific topics or names will be mentioned during a scheduled news broadcast. The outcome depends on the content of the live broadcast, with certain phrases triggering a positive resolution.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether any host or reporter mentions any of the specified terms during the ABC World News Tonight broadcast scheduled for October 15, 2026. Each market corresponds to a unique term or phrase, and the market resolves to Yes if that specific term is uttered at least once during the broadcast. Resolution relies primarily on video footage of the broadcast, with transcripts used as a secondary source if video review fails to achieve consensus among Kalshi employees. The entire original broadcast content is considered, including promotional segments, but excluding advertisements. If the broadcast is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days, the markets remain open. The exact wording, including plural or possessive forms of the terms, is required for a positive resolution, with grammatical variations not counting unless specified.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on expert opinion and modeling, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of information and potential scenarios. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, as markets can quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities based on collective insight. This can be particularly useful for events where subjective judgment plays a significant role, such as anticipating the focus of a news broadcast. Examining these differences can offer a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether a specific topic will be mentioned on ABC World News Tonight. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that event occurring, with higher prices indicating greater confidence. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price converges towards a consensus view. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time, providing a forward-looking assessment of potential news coverage.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a review of the ABC World News Tonight broadcast transcript to determine whether the topics listed in the market were mentioned. The exact wording and duration of mentions will be considered, following the market’s defined rules. The resolution process aims to provide a clear and objective determination of the outcome based on the actual content of the news program.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Breaking news events, particularly those related to the topics offered in the market, would likely cause substantial shifts in probabilities. Major political developments, economic announcements, or international crises could all influence what ABC World News Tonight chooses to cover. Additionally, statements from key figures or the release of significant reports could also move the market. Unexpected changes in the news cycle or a shift in public attention could also alter trader sentiment and affect the odds in this market.
