TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 7:09 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether specific phrases or names appear during a scheduled news broadcast. The outcome depends on the verbal content delivered by hosts or reporters during the live segment, with resolution based on available broadcast records.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on whether any host or reporter during the ABC World News Tonight broadcast scheduled for October 13, 2026, utters any of the specified phrases or names. Each market corresponds to a unique term or set of terms (e.g., "Russia," "Trump," "Hurricane/Isaias"). If the exact phrase, word, or a plural/possessive form of it is spoken, the associated market resolves to Yes. Resolution primarily uses video of the broadcast; if video consensus cannot be reached, official transcripts are used. Promotional content within the broadcast counts, but advertisements do not. If the broadcast is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days, markets remain open. The entire original broadcast content is considered for resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates an ability to incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional forecasts, potentially leading to more accurate predictions about the content of ABC World News Tonight. While analysts rely on specific expertise, the wisdom of the crowd in this market can capture nuanced expectations about the topics and framing that will be prioritized during the broadcast. It's a fascinating look at how different approaches to forecasting align or diverge.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether specific topics will be mentioned during ABC World News Tonight. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, driving the market price towards a consensus view. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the latest expectations of participants.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a review of the official transcript of ABC World News Tonight on the day in question. The outcome will reflect whether the topics outlined in the market contracts were demonstrably mentioned during the broadcast. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s result, based on publicly available information.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Breaking news stories, major political developments, or unexpected economic announcements are likely to influence what topics are covered on ABC World News Tonight. Shifts in public attention, as indicated by social media trends or other media coverage, could also impact the market. Furthermore, statements from key figures or the release of important reports could all serve as catalysts for price changes in this market, as traders adjust their expectations based on the evolving news landscape.
