TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 7:09 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether specific keywords or phrases are mentioned during a scheduled news broadcast. The outcome depends on the content of the live broadcast, focusing on the presence of predetermined terms across various topics.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple distinct markets, each tied to whether particular words or phrases are uttered by any host or reporter during the ABC World News Tonight broadcast scheduled for October 12, 2026. Resolution relies primarily on video footage of the broadcast, with transcripts serving as a secondary source if video consensus cannot be achieved. All markets share identical secondary resolution procedures and postponement clauses: if the broadcast is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days, markets remain open. Each market specifies an exact phrase or term—if used in any form (including plurals or possessives) during the broadcast, that market resolves positively. Advertisements are excluded from consideration, but promotional content within the broadcast counts. The entire original broadcast content is evaluated, with no external or additional materials considered for resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence versus expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional polls or punditry. While analysts may focus on pre-determined narratives, this market reflects what traders believe is *most likely* to be said on air, based on their own information and assessment of the situation. This dynamic can lead to divergences, as the wisdom of the crowd often incorporates a broader range of factors than individual expert analyses.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective belief about what will be reported. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by new information, shifts in sentiment, and strategic trading activity, creating a dynamic and responsive pricing mechanism for this market.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a transcript of the ABC World News Tonight broadcast on the specified date. The outcome will be determined by whether the statements outlined in the different market contracts were actually spoken by a host or reporter during the program. The final outcome is verified against credible public sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market. Major breaking news stories, particularly those likely to be covered by ABC World News Tonight, would be a primary driver. Any announcements from ABC News regarding the focus of the broadcast or planned interviews could also cause shifts in the odds. Political developments, economic data releases, or significant international events are all potential catalysts. Increased media attention on specific topics, or even social media trends, could influence trader sentiment and impact the volume and pricing within this market.
