TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 7:10 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether specific keywords or phrases will be mentioned during a scheduled news broadcast. The outcome depends on the content of the live broadcast, with resolution based on video or transcript analysis.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on whether any host or reporter during the ABC World News Tonight broadcast scheduled for October 8, 2026, utters any of the specified terms or phrases. Each market corresponds to a unique term or phrase (e.g., "Iran," "Russia," "Trump," etc.), and the market resolves to "Yes" if that specific term or phrase—exactly as stated, including plural or possessive forms—is spoken during the broadcast. The live broadcast or stream serves as the primary source for resolution, with internal and external transcripts used as a secondary reference if video consensus cannot be reached. Promotional content within the broadcast counts toward resolution, but advertisements do not. If the broadcast is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days, the markets remain open. The entire content of the original broadcast is considered for resolution, and no additional content outside the broadcast contributes to the outcome.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence. Often, this market demonstrates an ability to synthesize information from various sources more effectively than traditional polls or expert opinions. While analysts may focus on specific political narratives, the market aggregates diverse perspectives, reflecting a broader understanding of potential news coverage. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates developments that haven’t yet been fully recognized by conventional analysis, or vice versa, demonstrating the value of both approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity provide insights into the confidence level surrounding each potential topic, and the current prices are a direct result of supply and demand for these contracts.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a review of the ABC World News Tonight broadcast transcript to determine whether the specified topics were mentioned. The outcome is determined by the presence or absence of these topics during the broadcast, as verified against credible public sources. The market will settle based on this objective assessment of the broadcast content.
Several signals could significantly move this market before resolution. Major breaking news events, particularly those related to politics, international affairs, or domestic policy, are likely to influence trading activity. Unexpected statements from key political figures or developments in ongoing investigations could also shift the odds. Furthermore, changes in the news cycle and the prominence of certain issues in public discourse will impact perceptions of what ABC World News Tonight is likely to cover. Any significant shift in these factors could lead to substantial price movements in this market.
