TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 7, 7:18 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event tracks whether specific key terms appear in a scheduled news broadcast, using the actual aired content as the definitive source for verification. Each term has clearly defined criteria for resolution based on its mention during the broadcast.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on whether designated terms or phrases are uttered by any host or reporter during the ABC World News Tonight broadcast scheduled for October 7, 2026. Resolution primarily uses video footage of the broadcast, with transcripts serving as a backup if video consensus cannot be reached among Kalshi employees. The entire original broadcast content is considered, excluding any material not part of the initial airing—such as advertisements—while including promotional segments. If the broadcast is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days, markets remain open. Each market specifies exact phrasing requirements, including acceptance of plural or possessive forms, and all determinations rely solely on content present in the live broadcast or stream.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on expert opinion and modeling, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting what traders believe is most likely to occur. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially when subjective factors are at play. For example, if analysts predict a focus on economic data, but traders anticipate a breaking news event will dominate coverage, this market will reflect that divergence in expectations. This dynamic makes it a valuable tool for assessing potential blind spots in conventional analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes, and the price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing beliefs. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe a topic is likely to be mentioned, they will bid up the price of the corresponding contract, increasing its implied probability.
This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a review of the official transcript of ABC World News Tonight on the date of the broadcast. The market will determine whether or not specific topics were mentioned during the program, as defined by the market’s contract specifications. The focus is on verifiable mentions within the broadcast itself, not pre- or post-show discussions or related news coverage.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Breaking news stories, particularly those with national or international implications, are likely to shift probabilities. Major political developments, economic announcements, or unexpected statements from prominent figures could all influence what topics are prioritized on ABC World News Tonight. Additionally, the overall news cycle and the competitive landscape of other news programs could play a role, as ABC may choose to cover stories that haven't received extensive attention elsewhere. Shifts in public attention, as indicated by social media trends, could also impact this market.
