TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 7:10 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event tracks whether specific phrases or terms are mentioned during a scheduled news broadcast. Each market corresponds to a different phrase, and resolution depends on whether any host or reporter uses the exact phrase during the live broadcast.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on whether any host or reporter mentions the specified phrase during the ABC World News Tonight broadcast scheduled for October 6, 2026. The primary resolution method uses the live broadcast or stream; if video review is inconclusive, official transcripts serve as the tiebreaker. Exact phrase matching applies, including plural or possessive forms, but grammatical variations are excluded. Promotional content within the broadcast counts toward resolution, while advertisements do not. If the broadcast is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days, markets remain open. The entire original broadcast content is considered for all markets, with no external material influencing outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence versus expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates an ability to synthesize information from a wide range of sources, potentially outperforming individual analyst predictions. While analysts may focus on specific factors, the market incorporates a broader spectrum of perspectives, leading to potentially more accurate forecasts of what will be discussed on ABC World News Tonight. Discrepancies can highlight areas where the market perceives information differently than established experts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the latest collective wisdom regarding the content of ABC World News Tonight, making it a valuable tool for forecasting.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on transcripts or recordings of the ABC World News Tonight broadcast, determining whether the predicted topics were mentioned by reporters. The outcome will be determined by a review of the broadcast content, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual content of the news program.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major breaking news stories, particularly those related to politics, international affairs, or significant domestic events, are likely to influence trading activity. Official statements from government officials or key figures, unexpected announcements, or shifts in public opinion could also drive price changes. Furthermore, any pre-broadcast reporting or previews of the ABC World News Tonight content could impact the market as traders adjust their expectations based on new information.
