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$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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VS.

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BETA
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Politics
What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 28 - October 4)
polymarket

What will NYT headlines say by October 4?

Volume:
$4,873

Trump

 - Polymarket

Trump - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 4, 2026

Closed: Sep 28, 12:11 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Trump

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$534
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fear

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$512
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Star

100%
74%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$488
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ukraine

100%
62%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$300
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Iran

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$99
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Party

0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$811
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Vote / Voter / Votes

0%
56%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$604
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Supreme Court

0%
43%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$537
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Space

0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$342
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lawyer

0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$337
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fashion

0%
36%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$308
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between September 28 and October 4, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article. Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count. Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count. Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline, will not qualify. Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, usage of that compound word qualifies, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. (E.g. if the listed term is joy, killjoy qualifies but joyful does not. E.g. if the listed term is sun, sunflower qualifies but sunny does not.) If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, use of that hyphenated compound will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “NATO,” “pro-NATO” and “anti-NATO” qualify. If the listed term has non-standard transliterations into English, such transliterations will qualify if they are phonetically equivalent. For example, if the listed term is “Erdogan,” “Erdoğan” qualifies. If the listed term is “Zelensky,” “Zelenskiy” qualifies. If the listed term is an abbreviation, periodized forms of that abbreviation will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “AI,” “A.I.” qualifies. However, extraneous symbols inserted into a word (e.g. r@d1cal for “radical”) will disqualify it from counting toward a “Yes” resolution. This market only pertains to the daily New York edition prints of the New York Times, also available at https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/. Only the first official release of a qualifying front page will be counted. Any subsequent releases that differ from the initial release will not be considered. Other editions will not be considered. You can find an example of what counts here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nyt-headlines.jpeg.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between September 28 and October 4, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article. Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count. Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count. Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline, will not qualify. Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, usage of that compound word qualifies, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. (E.g. if the listed term is joy, killjoy qualifies but joyful does not. E.g. if the listed term is sun, sunflower qualifies but sunny does not.) If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, use of that hyphenated compound will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “NATO,” “pro-NATO” and “anti-NATO” qualify. If the listed term has non-standard transliterations into English, such transliterations will qualify if they are phonetically equivalent. For example, if the listed term is “Erdogan,” “Erdoğan” qualifies. If the listed term is “Zelensky,” “Zelenskiy” qualifies. If the listed term is an abbreviation, periodized forms of that abbreviation will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “AI,” “A.I.” qualifies. However, extraneous symbols inserted into a word (e.g. r@d1cal for “radical”) will disqualify it from counting toward a “Yes” resolution. This market only pertains to the daily New York edition prints of the New York Times, also available at https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/. Only the first official release of a qualifying front page will be counted. Any subsequent releases that differ from the initial release will not be considered. Other editions will not be considered. You can find an example of what counts here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nyt-headlines.jpeg.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data regarding potential news coverage. While polls gauge public opinion on candidates and issues, this market reflects what traders believe will actually *make* the news, as determined by the New York Times editors. This difference in focus can lead to divergence. For example, if a candidate is leading in polls but facing internal campaign turmoil, this market might give higher probability to headlines about the turmoil than the polls would suggest. It’s a forward-looking assessment of news likelihood, not just current sentiment.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders deposit USDC to take positions on different headline outcomes, and the price of each outcome adjusts based on supply and demand. As more USDC is wagered on a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price essentially represents the collective wisdom of the crowd, expressing their beliefs about which headlines are most likely to appear. This dynamic pricing ensures that the odds reflect the latest information and trader sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the headlines published on the New York Times front page between September 28 and October 4 will be reviewed to determine which outcomes were predicted correctly. The market will settle to 100% for the outcome(s) that accurately reflect the actual headlines, and 0% for all others. The resolution will be based on the official, publicly available record of the New York Times front pages during that period.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 4, 2026. Major political developments, such as a surprise announcement from a presidential candidate or a significant shift in legislative priorities, would likely impact the odds. Unexpected economic news, like a dramatic jobs report or a stock market crash, could also drive headline coverage. Furthermore, breaking international events or a major Supreme Court ruling could easily become front-page news. Any event that is perceived as highly newsworthy by the New York Times editors has the potential to shift probabilities in this market.