TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 9:45 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
During a scheduled Michigan U.S. Senate debate, participants may address various political topics and issues relevant to voters. The focus is on whether specific phrases or subjects are mentioned by any candidate during the official broadcast. Outcomes depend solely on the content spoken during the live debate, with clear guidelines for verification and resolution.
Kalshi
Multiple markets exist for the Michigan U.S. Senate debate scheduled for October 8, 2026, each tied to whether participating candidates mention specific phrases or subjects. Resolution relies on reviewing the live broadcast or official transcripts to confirm if any candidate, speaking in an official capacity, uses the exact phrase or any qualifying variation (including plurals or possessives). Grammatical variations, inaudible off-mic comments, archival footage, or content outside the broadcast do not count. If the debate is canceled, postponed beyond 14 days, or otherwise fails to meet qualification criteria, the “Event does not qualify” market resolves to Yes, and all others resolve to No. Postponements announced within one day to reschedule within 14 days keep all markets open.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for what will be said during the Michigan Senate debate. While analysts often provide qualitative assessments, this market aggregates the collective judgment of many individuals, expressed through real-money bets. This can sometimes lead to differences in perceived probabilities, as the market reflects a broader range of information and potential outcomes. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming your own expectations about the debate.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the likelihood of specific statements being made during the Michigan Senate debate. The price of a contract reflects the current market consensus on that outcome’s probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices will fluctuate, providing a dynamic assessment of potential debate content. The goal is to accurately reflect the collective prediction of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on transcripts and recordings of the Michigan Senate debate, identifying whether the statements in question were actually made by the candidates. The market will determine which outcomes were predicted correctly based on this verified record. The outcome will be determined by a review of the official record of the debate.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Any breaking news related to the candidates' policy positions or planned debate strategies would likely impact trading activity. Major endorsements, campaign gaffes, or unexpected announcements could also shift perceptions of what topics will be emphasized during the Michigan Senate debate. Furthermore, early reports on debate preparation or leaked excerpts could influence the odds, as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions accordingly.
