TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 7, 9:30 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
During an upcoming U.S. Senate debate in Iowa, participants will address various policy topics and issues important to voters. The discussion will cover a range of current events and pressing concerns, with candidates articulating their positions and proposals.
Kalshi
The event involves multiple markets that resolve based on whether participating candidates mention specific phrases during the Iowa Press Debates for the U.S. Senate scheduled for October 7, 2026. Each market corresponds to a particular phrase or set of phrases (e.g., "Trump," "Medicaid / Medicare," "Tariff"), and resolution depends on the verbatim use of these phrases by any candidate in an official capacity during the live broadcast or stream. If the exact phrase—or any plural/possessive form—is uttered, the respective market resolves to Yes. Resolution relies primarily on video footage from the live event; if video consensus cannot be reached, official transcripts are used. Markets also account for event cancellations or postponements: if definitively canceled, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, closing all others; if postponed within 14 days, markets remain open. Grammatical variations, inaudible private remarks, and content from unrelated recordings do not count toward resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the Iowa Senate debate. While polls and expert opinions attempt to predict what candidates will say, this market reflects the collective judgment of individuals with skin in the game. Discrepancies between the market and analyst predictions can highlight areas where the crowd believes analysts are over or underestimating the likelihood of certain statements. It’s a fascinating comparison of informed speculation versus incentivized forecasting, offering a different signal about potential debate outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential statements from the candidates. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that statement being made, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The higher the demand for a contract, the higher its price, and the greater the implied probability of the corresponding statement being uttered during the debate.
This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on transcripts and recordings of the Iowa Senate debate, identifying whether the specified statements were made by the candidates. The market will determine which statements were most prominently featured and whether they met the criteria defined within the market's parameters. The process aims to provide a clear and objective assessment of the debate's content based on publicly available information.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Any pre-debate interviews or statements from the candidates themselves are likely to shift probabilities. Major news events related to the candidates or the issues discussed in the debate could also cause movement. Unexpected policy announcements or endorsements could also influence trader sentiment. Finally, the release of any polling data leading up to the debate could cause adjustments in the market as traders react to the latest information and refine their predictions about the likely debate topics and candidate messaging.
