TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 12:27 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks specific phrases that Steve Hilton might mention during a Fox News broadcast. It focuses on whether certain topics or terms are discussed during the live show, providing a way to monitor public discourse on these subjects through an official media platform.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Steve Hilton mentions any of several specified phrases during the Fox News: Saturday in America with Kayleigh McEnany broadcast scheduled for October 17, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different phrase or condition, and resolution depends on verifying whether Hilton utters the exact phrase (or its plural/possessive form) in an official capacity during the live broadcast. Verification uses video footage first, with official transcripts as a backup if consensus cannot be reached. Grammatical variations, unaired content, and off-mic remarks do not count. If the broadcast is canceled, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, closing all others. Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. All markets are mutually exclusive, with only one resolving to Yes based on the presence or absence of qualifying phrases.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. In this market, the implied probabilities from Kalshi reflect what traders believe about the likelihood of specific topics appearing in Steve Hilton’s commentary. These probabilities can be contrasted with pre-show analyses from political commentators or media critics, potentially highlighting areas where the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ diverges from conventional expectations. It’s a fascinating way to assess whether the market anticipates Hilton focusing on issues overlooked by traditional forecasting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes – in this case, whether Steve Hilton will mention specific topics. The price of each contract reflects the current probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations surrounding the Saturday in America broadcast. The market’s depth, indicated by bid and ask prices, shows the level of agreement among traders.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a review of the transcript or recording of Steve Hilton’s Saturday in America broadcast to determine whether the topics listed in the market were mentioned. The resolution process will rely on publicly available sources to ensure an objective assessment of the show’s content, and the outcome will be determined based on whether the specified statements were demonstrably made during the broadcast.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any breaking news stories or political developments that are likely to be addressed by Steve Hilton could cause shifts in the odds. Pre-show commentary from Hilton himself, or from guests appearing on Saturday in America, could also influence trader behavior. Furthermore, changes in public opinion or trending topics on social media related to potential discussion points may impact the perceived likelihood of certain mentions, driving volume and price fluctuations in this market.
