TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 10:35 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether specific predefined terms are mentioned during Starbucks' upcoming earnings call. Participants can speculate on the likelihood of certain phrases being used, reflecting potential discussion topics or strategic focuses during the call.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on whether any of the specified terms or phrases are uttered by any Starbucks Corporation representative during the live earnings call or official broadcast, including the Q+A session, on October 29, 2026. Resolution relies first on video footage of the call; if Kalshi employees cannot reach consensus using video, transcripts from news publications listed in the contract will be used. The exact phrase, or its plural/possessive form, triggers a 'Yes' outcome, while grammatical or tense variations do not count. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with Starbucks. All brand names and trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect what traders believe Starbucks will say on their next earnings call, and these can differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide specific revenue or earnings projections, this market focuses on the content of the call itself – what topics will be addressed, and what language will be used. It's possible that the market anticipates a shift in strategy or a focus on specific challenges that haven't yet been widely recognized by analysts, or vice versa. This provides a unique perspective beyond standard financial modeling.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and order book are visible on the platform, allowing traders to see the current bid and ask prices and the volume available at each price point, influencing their trading decisions.
This market resolves around Nov 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a review of the official transcript of Starbucks’ earnings call to determine whether the statements predicted in the market were actually made. The outcome will be determined by identifying whether the key phrases or topics outlined in each market outcome were explicitly mentioned during the call, as documented in the official transcript.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected news regarding Starbucks' financial performance, changes in leadership, or major announcements about new products or strategies could all shift trader sentiment. Broader economic trends, such as inflation or consumer spending patterns, could also influence expectations for the earnings call. Additionally, any pre-earnings reports or analyst commentary that deviates significantly from current expectations could cause substantial movement in this market as traders adjust their positions.
