TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 10:38 PM EST
Kalshi
During corporate earnings calls, company executives discuss financial performance and strategic initiatives. Participants often address topics relevant to current business challenges and opportunities, responding to questions from analysts and investors about future plans and market conditions.
Each market resolves based on whether a specified phrase is uttered by any Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. representative during the next earnings call, including the Q+A session. Resolution uses video of the call, with transcripts from news publications as a fallback if video consensus cannot be reached. Payout criteria require the exact phrase, or its plural/possessive form; grammatical or tense variations do not count. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc., and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts for Sprouts’ earnings call reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of perspectives than traditional analyst reports, potentially incorporating information not yet captured in formal analyses. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially regarding the likelihood of specific topics being addressed. While analysts might focus on financial metrics, this market can also price in expectations about strategic shifts, competitive pressures, or even management’s tone. This provides a unique signal beyond standard financial modeling.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether a specific statement will be made during the Sprouts earnings call. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating greater perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, driving the market price towards a consensus view. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time assessment of expectations surrounding the earnings call.
This market resolves around Nov 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Sprouts earnings call transcript is publicly available and verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether the statements predicted in each market outcome were actually made by Sprouts representatives during the call. The market will determine which statements were mentioned, and the outcome will be based on the official transcript. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process for this market.
Several signals could significantly move this market before resolution. Any pre-earnings news regarding Sprouts, such as changes in guidance, key personnel announcements, or unexpected economic data, could shift expectations. Analyst reports offering strong opinions on potential call topics could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, broader market sentiment and overall economic conditions could play a role. Finally, even rumors or speculation about the content of the earnings call, if widely circulated, could impact the price of contracts in this market.