TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 7:44 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The market tracks whether Scott Bessent will mention specific economic, political, or financial topics during a televised interview. Outcomes depend on the exact wording used during the broadcast, with precise criteria for qualifying statements.
Kalshi
The event involves multiple markets resolving based on whether Scott Bessent utters specified phrases during the Face the Nation broadcast scheduled for November 1, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct phrase or set of phrases (e.g., 'Inflation,' 'Trump,' 'AI'). A market resolves to 'Yes' if Bessent says the exact phrase, or a plural/possessive form of it, during the live broadcast in an official capacity. Video footage and official transcripts serve as primary evidence, with Kalshi employees resolving disputes. Markets resolve to 'No' if the phrase isn’t uttered. If the event is canceled, all markets except 'Event does not qualify' resolve to 'No,' and the latter resolves to 'Yes.' Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. Grammatical variations, off-mic comments, archival footage, and unaired content don’t count. The 'Event does not qualify' market resolves 'Yes' only if no qualifying phrases are spoken or the event is canceled.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. While analysts often provide pre-event assessments of what Scott Bessent might discuss, this market reflects the aggregated predictions of a diverse group of traders. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates surprises or where analysts may be overlooking certain possibilities. It's important to remember that analysts’ forecasts are static, whereas this market continuously updates as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential statements by Scott Bessent. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, displayed on the dashboard, indicates the volume of contracts available at different price points, providing insight into the liquidity and potential price movements.
This market resolves around Nov 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a transcript of Scott Bessent’s interview on Face the Nation. The contracts will pay out based on whether the specified statements were made during the broadcast. The exact wording of the statements will be the determining factor, verified against publicly available sources. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process for all participants in this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any pre-interview statements or hints from Scott Bessent himself would likely cause shifts in the odds. Major economic news releases or political developments occurring before the interview could also influence traders' expectations about his likely comments. Additionally, any changes in the planned focus or topics of the Face the Nation interview could prompt adjustments in the market. Increased media attention or analyst commentary on the interview could also drive trading volume and price fluctuations in this market.
