TOTAL VOLUME:
$155.1b
24H VOL:
$337,672,170
24H TRANSACTIONS:
3,002,125,488
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,014,360,784
421,272
Markets across
40,138
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,437
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 5:24 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether Scott Bessent will mention specific economic and financial topics during a scheduled CNBC broadcast. The outcome depends on the exact wording used during the live show, with strict criteria for what constitutes a valid mention.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on whether Scott Bessent utters any of the specified phrases during the CNBC Closing Bell: Overtake broadcast scheduled for October 28, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different phrase or set of phrases (e.g., "Warsh", "Inflation", "Trump", etc.), and the market resolves to Yes if Bessent says the exact phrase or any of its plural/possessive forms in an official capacity during the broadcast. Resolution relies primarily on live video footage, with official transcripts used as a fallback if video consensus cannot be reached. Grammatical variations, unaired content, and off-mic comments do not count. If the broadcast is canceled, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, closing all others; if postponed within 14 days, markets remain open.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing the odds in this market to analyst forecasts reveals how collective prediction differs from expert opinion. Often, prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional analyst reports, potentially leading to different probability assessments. If analysts widely expect Scott Bessent to discuss inflation, but this market assigns a lower probability to that outcome, it suggests traders believe other topics are more likely to be prioritized. This divergence can be insightful, offering a unique perspective beyond standard financial analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential statements by Scott Bessent. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current assessment of its probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust to reflect changing expectations. The market depth—the number of contracts available at different price points—indicates the level of confidence in each outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive assessment of the interview’s potential content.
This market resolves around Nov 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on a review of the official CNBC Closing Bell: Overtime broadcast transcript or recording. The market will determine which statements made by Scott Bessent match the outcomes listed on Kalshi. The process focuses on objectively verifying what was actually said during the interview, ensuring a clear and transparent resolution based on publicly available information.
Several signals could significantly move this market before resolution. Any pre-interview comments made by Scott Bessent himself, or leaks regarding the planned discussion topics, would likely cause shifts in the odds. Major economic data releases occurring shortly before the interview, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions, could also influence expectations about what he will address. Finally, breaking news related to Bessent’s firm or the broader financial markets could also impact trading activity and alter the probabilities reflected in this market.
