TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 7:09 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether specific topics or names are mentioned during a scheduled news broadcast. The resolution depends on the verbal content of the broadcast, with precise criteria for what constitutes a valid mention.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on whether any host or reporter mentions specified terms during the ABC World News Tonight broadcast scheduled for October 19, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different term or phrase, and resolution requires the exact word, phrase, or a plural/possessive form to be used within the live broadcast or stream. Promotional content counts, but advertisements do not. Video footage is the primary source for verification, with transcripts used as a secondary reference if needed. If the broadcast is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days, the markets remain active. The entire content of the original broadcast is considered for resolution purposes.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates the wisdom of the crowd, potentially identifying topics that analysts may overlook or underestimate. While analysts rely on pre-defined models and biases, this market reflects a dynamic assessment of probabilities based on a wide range of information. It’s a fascinating way to gauge whether the market anticipates the same issues as traditional news commentators and political observers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether a specific topic will be mentioned. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds constantly adapt to new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a review of the ABC World News Tonight broadcast transcript and video recording to determine if the predicted topics were mentioned by any host or reporter. The outcome will be based on what is actually reported during the program, and verified against credible public sources; no further details are available at this time.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Major breaking news events, particularly those relating to politics, international affairs, or the economy, are likely to shift trading activity. Unexpected statements from key political figures or the release of significant economic data could also drive price changes. Even the announcement of interviews with prominent guests on ABC World News Tonight could influence the odds, as traders adjust their expectations about the broadcast's focus. Any development that alters the perceived likelihood of certain topics being discussed will impact this market.
