TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 9:39 PM EST
Kalshi
Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional
Description
During a political rally, a speaker may address various topics that resonate with the audience and align with campaign themes. The specific choice of language and issues discussed can reflect broader strategies and priorities. Tracking mentions of certain phrases offers insight into the focus areas and messaging tactics employed during the event.
Kalshi
The event involves a political rally where multiple markets are resolved based on whether Barack Obama utters specific phrases or terms during his speech. Resolution relies primarily on video footage from the live broadcast or stream, supplemented by official transcripts if necessary. Each market has defined payout criteria requiring the exact phrase or its plural/possessive form to be spoken by Obama in an official capacity. Grammatical variations, private conversations, and content from unrelated contexts do not qualify. If the event is canceled or fails to meet resolution conditions, the “Event does not qualify” market resolves to Yes, and all others resolve to No. Postponements announced within a specified timeframe keep markets open. Consensus among Kalshi employees ensures fair resolution using available materials.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the predictions made in this market to those of political analysts. Traditional forecasts often rely on polling data and expert opinions, which can be subject to biases and inaccuracies. This market, however, aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, allowing traders to express their beliefs about the likelihood of various statements being made. While analyst forecasts provide valuable context, the dynamic nature of this market may offer a different perspective on what is likely to occur at the Obama Atlanta rally.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential statements from the rally, and the price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective belief. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price is determined solely by supply and demand within Kalshi, and the current probabilities are derived from these prices, offering a real-time view of expectations surrounding the event.
This market resolves around Nov 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a transcript or reliable recording of Barack Obama’s remarks at the rally. The outcome will be determined by whether each statement in the market was demonstrably made during the speech. The market will settle based on the verified content of the speech, providing a clear and objective determination of the results.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any pre-rally statements made by Barack Obama or his campaign team regarding the topics he intends to address would likely cause shifts in the odds. Major news events occurring between now and the rally date could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, the release of any polling data related to public expectations for the rally could move the market. Finally, any changes to the rally’s schedule or format could also introduce volatility into this market.
