TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 10:35 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether specific phrases will be mentioned during a political rally, focusing on topics and names relevant to current debates. The outcome depends solely on the content of the speech as delivered during the scheduled event.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether President Barack Obama mentions any of 23 specified phrases during his scheduled rally in Cleveland, Ohio. Resolution relies on reviewing live video broadcasts or official transcripts to confirm exact word usage in an official capacity. Markets resolve to Yes if Obama utters the exact phrase (including plural or possessive forms), excluding grammatical variations, private conversations, or unrelated content. If the event is canceled, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, closing all others. Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. Each phrase-specific market resolves independently based on verbal mention during the event.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for what Obama will say in Ohio. While analysts often provide qualitative assessments and subjective probabilities, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders, resulting in a quantifiable probability for each potential statement. It’s important to note that prediction markets often incorporate information faster than traditional sources, potentially offering an earlier signal of changing expectations. This can lead to differences in perceived likelihood compared to pre-event polling or expert opinions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the probability of each statement being made. The price of a contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The market depth, visible on the dashboard, shows the available buy and sell orders at different price points, indicating the level of agreement or disagreement among traders.
This market resolves around Nov 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a transcript or reliable recording of Obama’s remarks during the Ohio rally. The market will determine which statements were actually made, and the outcome will be based on the most accurate and complete record available. The resolution process aims to provide a clear and objective determination of the market’s outcome based on publicly available information.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 7, 2026. Any official statements released by the Obama campaign regarding the rally’s focus or planned remarks would be a major catalyst. Unexpected news events or political developments in the days leading up to the rally could also influence traders’ expectations. Furthermore, media coverage and analysis of Obama’s recent speeches or public appearances might shift perceptions of his likely messaging. Changes in polling data related to key issues in Ohio could also impact the market as traders adjust their predictions.
