TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 12:31 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
During Morgan Stanley's upcoming earnings call, participants will track whether specific keywords are mentioned by any representatives. The focus is on monitoring verbal content for particular terms that may signal strategic priorities, market outlooks, or emerging trends.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes if a designated keyword or phrase is uttered by any Morgan Stanley representative during the earnings call, including the Q+A session. Resolution relies primarily on video footage of the call; if video consensus cannot be reached among Kalshi employees, official transcripts from designated news publications will be used. Payout criteria require the exact phrase or its plural/possessive form, excluding grammatical or tense variations. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any formal affiliation with Morgan Stanley, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi regarding the content of the Morgan Stanley earnings call. These odds often differ from traditional analyst forecasts, as they incorporate a broader range of information and perspectives. This market allows for a comparison between what experts predict and what traders believe is most likely to occur, based on their own analysis and insights. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates surprises or where analysts may be underestimating certain possibilities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe a particular statement will be made, the higher the price of the corresponding contract will climb. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the earnings call approaches. Traders can actively participate in shaping the odds by placing bids and offers.
This market resolves around Mar 31, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a review of the official transcript of the Morgan Stanley earnings call. The contracts will pay out based on whether the statements outlined in each market outcome were explicitly mentioned during the call. The market's resolution is determined by objective verification of the call's content, ensuring a transparent and reliable outcome for all participants.
Several signals could significantly move this market before Mar 31, 2027. Any pre-earnings announcements from Morgan Stanley, including investor presentations or regulatory filings, could shift expectations. Broader economic news, particularly regarding financial markets and interest rates, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected news related to Morgan Stanley’s competitors or the overall banking sector could also cause price fluctuations. Finally, analyst upgrades or downgrades of Morgan Stanley stock could impact sentiment and drive trading volume in this market.
