TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 2:08 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The outcome depends on whether Mike Rogers mentions specific topics during a scheduled television interview. The focus is on his verbal acknowledgment of particular subjects within the live broadcast, with resolution based on official video or transcript verification.
Kalshi
Markets resolve based on whether Mike Rogers utters specified exact phrases during the live broadcast of Meet the Press scheduled for October 25, 2026. Resolution relies primarily on analyzing the live video broadcast; if inconclusive, official internal and external transcripts are used. Markets cover various topics, with one requiring mention of "Trump" at least three times. A separate market resolves to Yes if none of the qualifying phrases are mentioned or if the event is definitively cancelled, with all others resolving to No in such cases. If the event is postponed within 14 calendar days, markets remain open. Grammatical variations, unaired content, and off-mic remarks do not count toward resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. While analysts often provide pre-event assessments of what Mike Rogers might say, this market reflects the aggregated predictions of a diverse group of traders. If analysts broadly anticipate a specific statement, we might see corresponding higher prices for that outcome in this market. However, discrepancies can emerge if traders perceive information or angles that analysts haven’t fully considered, leading to potentially different probabilities assigned to each possibility. This dynamic interplay offers a unique perspective on event expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential statements Mike Rogers might make, and the prices of those contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand. As more people believe a particular statement is likely, the price of the corresponding contract increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The prices reflect the market’s collective assessment of the probability of each outcome, offering a real-time view of expectations as they evolve leading up to the interview. This allows traders to express their informed opinions and profit from correctly anticipating the event’s outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a transcript of the Meet the Press interview with Mike Rogers. The market will determine which of the listed statements were actually uttered by Rogers during the broadcast. The outcome will be determined by a review of the official transcript, ensuring an objective assessment of what was said. This process provides a clear and transparent basis for settling this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any pre-interview statements made by Mike Rogers himself, or by individuals close to him, would likely impact trading activity. News coverage focusing on the topics Rogers is expected to address could also shift probabilities. Unexpected developments related to the issues he’s likely to discuss—such as breaking news or political events—could also influence trader sentiment. Finally, any perceived shifts in the political landscape or public opinion could lead to adjustments in the prices within this market as traders react to new information.
